Stage 11 Preview & Predictions
Cadel’s Fitness To Be Tested
Coming off a well-needed rest day on Tuesday, the riders return on Wednesday to a testy stage of 167.5 kilometers, or about 120 miles, with an elevation profile that resembles your third cousin Dewey’s dental chart.
The first 100km won’t provide any reason for riders to come off the back of the peloton – the ups and downs are frequent, but relatively subtle.
However, they’re just the ticket for any rider looking to launch a breakaway.
Accordingly, we expect to see attempted escapes by a) any Frenchman on a bicycle, b) any rider who blew up on Stage 10 and figures the GC guys will give them some leash, and c) racers with CSC and Caisse and Columbia jerseys, as those teams seem the most intent on putting Cadel Evans in pain as often as possible. Then there are teams like Garmin-Chipotle with a new sponsor and a desire for lots of TV time, so perhaps they’ll take a flyer as well.
Okay, so it would be easier to check off the teams who WON’T be launching attacks on Tuesday. First, there’s Silence-Lotto. All right, that should about do it.
So the GC contenders will be keeping their eyes on who gets away off the front, and undoubtedly some of their own teammates will be joining those breaks, continuing efforts in recent days to try to break apart the top riders. This will make for some interesting teamcar-algebra as sports directors shout instructions to riders either to chase the escapees or let them go.
Unfortunately, as we eluded to above, perhaps the weakest team in the Tour – or at least the weakest team worth watching – is the one that supports Tour favorite Cadel Evans. Or is supposed to. And that will matter when they come to the Category 1 climb about two-thirds of the way through this stage.
The base of the Col de Portel lies 95 kilometers from the start of the stage, and surmounting it involves a thousand meters – or over a half mile of vertical climb – over a 15 kilometer stretch of road.
For those riders who manage to stick with the leaders to this point in the stage, they can be assured of a veritable fireworks display as mountain specialists look to take some more time advantage before the Tour exits the Pyrenees.
Among some notable names, we’re not sure if Carlos Sastre has the legs to escape Cadel Evans and Denis Menchov on this climb – as Sastre said he knew he didn’t have the right stuff ascending Hautacam on Monday’s Stage 10. While he may be able to minimize time losses on the climbs, this approach isn’t well-suited to earning one a GC podium position. For this reason, we have yet to figure out why so many others keep touting Sastre as a serious threat to win the GC.
Frank Schleck seems enigmatic. On again, off again. Clearly, Monday was his day and he did very well. If he were to find similar gunpowder in his legs on Stage 11, he might well separate from Cadel Evans and have a shot at donning the Yellow Jersey at the end of the day. The question is which Frank Schleck will show up to race on Tuesday. However, there can be little doubt that the CSC franchise will be there in full battle gear with a clever plan to make Cadel pay – and pay dearly – to continue to play.
Ricardo Ricco. We love the guy. Brass balls and climbs like smoke. Not only that, but his Saunier-Duval squad is absolutely chockablock with featherweight climbers itching for another stage win, and a properly timed escape could find them pulling it off. While they’re not viewed as a GC threat, something tells me they’d like to push Cadel hard enough that the big man breaks. In politics, they’d be the spoiler candidate. The Ralph Nader, if you will, of the Tour de France.
Finally, there’s Kim Kirchen and team Columbia who will miss no opportunities to put Cadel Evans in the torture chamber and try to crack his eggs.
Under all this pressure, most men would crumble. So far, credit where it’s due, Cadel Evans has withstood it.
However, Cadel’s struggle remains one of trying to win the Tour without a supporting squad. The only way to do this is to never lose by much, then win the time trials to make up any time you’ve lost. Cadel knows this. And so does everybody else.
Therefore, every team except his own is focused on giving Cadel that one killer-headache day. That one time when you barf up three, four or five minutes while guys like Kirchen and Menchov and Schleck and Vandevelde call dibs on your lunchbag. Monday was almost that day, but Cadel persevered to an almost inhuman extent. The guy’s a rock, we grant.
Wednesday is only a “medium mountain” stage and might not seem to be a giant-killer. However, there is the scent of Cadel’s blood in the water. Every rider and every team director knows that Cadel had to spend a lot of time in the redzone on Monday and got racked up pretty badly when he touched tires with another rider.
So stage 11 could be absolutely pivotal to this year’s Tour. With complete confusion as to who might win the Tour if it is not Cadel, numerous teams are pulling every possible string to be the one.
As a result, Cadel won’t get a moment’s peace and he’s going to have to come out on Wednesday fit and rested and ready to ride. If Cadel’s sore or just suffers a day when the legs won’t perform 100%, he’ll never feel so alone as when 167 other riders try to trounce him.
On the other hand, if he proves yet again to be the “Iron Man” of this year’s Tour, doubters such as yours truly may begin to believe that one man can with the Tour alone. [And if that happens, maybe the NFL will begin sending out just the quarterback to run offensive plays and save all that dough they spend on receivers, running backs, linemen, and so on. Yeah, right.]
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