Stage 5 Recap — And How To Bet Tomorrow’s Stage 6
By now you’re wondering if we have some kind of inside connection to the Tour, because pretty much what we have been saying is going to happen — happens.
Yesterday, was a good example.
Refreshing your memory, we said a lot of things, all of them very sage and insightful, and then offered the prediction that Stage 5 would be essentially a replay of Stage 3 — borefest, breakaway, and sprint finish.
There would be no meaningful changes to the GC rankings, we said.
Only the names of people in the breakaway would be different and the sprint finish wasn’t going to go to Valverde this time, but other than that there would be no need to Tivo it if you haven’t erased Stage 3 yet.
We said this would be the case because all the riders who mean something to the GC either just tore their own legs off trying to win the TT and get some time on their competition (and most of them seemed to have fallen short at it), or they would ride easy on Stage 5 because they want the legs fresh for mountain stages ahead.
So Stage 5 included a breakaway of four French riders who were allowed, as we said they would be, some “leash” but not enough to give worry that they could win the stage. The peleton is once bitten, twice shy, after all.
Today, the guys got something like 9 minutes out at one point, but with 10 kilometers left the break was down to half a minute and they might as well have stopped pedaling and sat up then.
And talking about group finishes, 172 out of the 177 riders who finished the stage all got the same time. That’s one winner and 171 talented wheel-suckers.
Five riders failed to finish with the pack but made it in eventually, and only one rider opted out of further racing.
Mauricio Soler scored a “DNF” about two days later than we thought he would, after having attempted to suffer through with a broken wrist and finally having decided it wasn’t going to work this year.
Team Barloworld had looked to Soler as a darkhorse for a top 10 GC finish, counting on his jerky, disjointed, and spider-like but highly effective way of climbing mountains to make up for his lack of outstanding talents in the time trials.
Unfortunately, when it comes to the mountains - beginning tomorrow - Barloworld may find it rough going without him and undoubtedly their focus will shift on trying to bring home some stage wins in the group sprints. More about that below.
A group sprint ensued and Mark Cavendish once again earned his spot on the Columbia squad by staving off Robbie McEwen, Erik Zabel, Thor Hushovd and the rest.
Cavendish benefitted from having not only the best sprinting legs in the Tour, but also the best organized leadout train, with iron horses such as George Hincapie pulling him down the finishing meters. What a great squad they’ve proven to be this year and what a feather in Bob Stapleton’s cap.
Speaking of surprisingly good teams, for a moment, in today’s stage Barloworld garnered the best overall team result, with riders Baden Cooke and Robbie Hunter coming in 5th and 6th.
That’s a very impressive result for this aggressive, young team. In the GC, where CSC has historically been difficult to beat, the teams occupying the top two slots are both U.S.-based, with Garmin Chipotle in #1 position thus far through the Tour, and Team Columbia in #2.
Given that Garmin and Columbia both signed on only in recent weeks to sponsor these teams, one has to believe they’re quite pleased at this point.
Now for Your Wagering Pleasure!
Doesn’t it seem like reading our predictions makes watching the next day’s stage a bit superfluous? We knew that.
Anyway, shame on you if you’re not stuffing your piggy bank with the money you could have won off your mates by following our sage advice. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, for sure.
So, as they say, let the gaming begin!
Yeah, Stage 6 is when things start to get interesting, as the climbers try to out-do each other and to put time on the sprinters and TT guys, and the GC guys try to stay near the front while staying out of the “red zone” physically.
It’s an opportunity for courageous breakaways that might be too good for the peleton to pull back in.
It’s a chance for “young guns” to show some leg and possibly put some of the big names in danger. Or, they over-fry their legs and the next day they get pooped out the back of the peleton and finish the day with a disastrous time deficit and a painful lesson in energy management.
Let’s recap the course they’ll ride.
Just under 200 kilometers across the hot “Massif Central” with a few climbs along the way would be a good day’s work. But this is something more than that.
Rarely will the riders be on flat roads. Instead, it will be up, then down, then up again, with two 4th category climbs (i.e., healthy warmups) early on, then toward the end of the day they get 50 kilometers of pure exasperation including an 11 kilometer climb to the ski resort of Super Besse, which sits at about 4,000 feet elevation.
This run-in and uphill finish would be tough on the legs after two hundred kilometers on the bike — but even before they get there they’ll have to surmount the even taller Category 2 Col de la Croix - Morand.
Here’s what you can count on:
Suffering 150 kilometers of ups and downs before the big climbs begin will plant the seeds for some interesting breakaways.
Who would we expect to see taking a flyer at this point: Either climbers sitting far down the GC list hoping to possibly recover minutes of time on the pack, or aggressive riders sitting below the top 20 and looking for an opportunity for a big surprise that could put them back into GC contention.
The attractive bit about this stage is that you don’t have to be a pure mountain guy to win it. This isn’t Alpe d’ Huez.
There will be some tough climbing, certainly, but a good “all arounder” can win it, too. Floyd Landis, bless his guilty soul, would have loved racing this stage.
Some jersies we’ll be watching for surprise attacks possibly early on will include Oscar Periero, Denis Menchov, Jaroslav Popovich, Jens Voigt, Sandy Casar, Will Frischkorn, Danny Pate, Thomas Voekler, Ricardo Ricco, and Frank Schleck.
You’ll also see every French climber looking for a little breakaway group to work in with.
We expect more than one breakaway to get off and stay out for a good portion of the day. For the record, the winner on the day will likely come from one of these groups, rather than from the peleton. Bet on it.
At the same time, you should see a growing trail of stragglers falling off the back. Especially the big guys.
Once the peleton gets to the Col de la Croix - Morand, you’ll see decent climbers allowing themselves to go off the back, with the hope of catching back on once they get over the summit.
Don’t be surprised if guys like George Hincapie take this approach. It’s called preserving energy for the finishing climb, and it’s a smart tactic if done right.
Cadel will stay near the front, doing peleton-algebra to keep up with the riders who’ve jumped ahead and making sure none of them get enough time to upset his GC standing.
Cadel will keep an especially close eye on Schumacher, Kirchen and Vande Velde, Hincapie, Menchov and Voigt.
This stage shouldn’t overwhelm Cadel, but the uphill finish will have all of the big names going into the red zone, while I’d look for some of the young guns who have shown their wings climbing steeper hills in the Tour d’Italia to try to break him.
Will Andy Schleck attack on the way up to Super Besse? Don’t be surprised. Will Jens Voight? Do birds fly? Will Menchov? I’d bet on it. Will Voekler? You should bet on it.
Once again, this will be a stage that won’t hand Cadel the win, but plenty of opportunity to hand him a loss. Given how consistently he rides, we think he’ll survive in good position.
However, we’re hoping for a great upset.
We’re hoping Jens or Andy or Ricardo, or maybe Kim Kirchen can manage to ratchet up the drama by getting a time gap of a minute or more on Cadel. If they pull this off, it’ll force Cadel out of his shell in coming stages, and we’ll all have more fun then!
Enough for now. Call your bookie, and send us a little gift when you pick up your winnings.
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