What You Need To Know About The Tour After First 2 Stages- Bicycle.Net - cycling news, product reviews

What You Need To Know About The Tour After First 2 Stages

By System6 on July 6th, 2008

Your Talking Points, Mon Ami…

Alright, you’re headed for the shop, or the office, or the neighborhood party, or whatever, and, as a fully-outed cycling nut, you know you’re going to get questions about how the Tour’s going.

Sure, you could snap off a quick “Valverde, a Spanish guy, is leading so far.” Of course this answer suffices, but plainly sucks nevertheless. You should be embarrassed, really. Where’s your insight, where’s your command if the key facts? How about some numbers, cycle-boy?

Yeah, wouldn’t that be nice; being able to rattle off clear, concise analysis like you’ve got Paul Sherwin talking in your ear by race-radio or something. Well, you’ve come to the right place. What follows is an easy encapsulation of the everything you’ll need handy to impress with other bikeys, who may know a thing or two about the topic, or with your mother -in-law, whom you consider lacking in any relevant knowledge whatsoever on practically any topic. No matter, you’ll be ready to roll.

So here we go:

o We’ve completed two stages of the tour, which has a total of 21, with the last one on July 27th ending in Paris, of course.

o Stage 3 will be a bore-fest extraordinaire, ending in a group sprint and possibly a group-crash in Nantes, along France’s northwestern coast.

o It is unlikely there will be any significant changes in the rankings on Monday, as everybody plays nice and rests the legs awaiting Tuesday’s Individual Time Trial, which will be won almost assuredly by world champion time-trialer and Swiss rider Fabian Cancellaria. It’s reasonable to expect that everybody else will be racing for second place. It is also reasonable for you to place a painfully large wager on a win by Fabian. Mortgage the house. Pawn your wife’s jewelry. This is so iron-clad its surprising the race organizers even bother having the event. Enough said about that.

o Of course, Spanish rider Alejandro Valverde is the current overall leader of the Tour by an overwhelming one second gap. This gap won’t stand past Tuesday but Valverde will be happy to give up the Yellow Jersey for a while — so long as he doesn’t do it by more than a few seconds. If Team CSC’s Cancellaria wins the time trial (scratch that “if”, replace with “when”), then CSC will have the monkey on its back in coming days to lead the peloton and chase down breaks, and Valverde and his boys will sit comfortably behind them sipping espressos as the miles roll beneath.

o Because we haven’t had any time trial yet, there are essentially no time gaps at this point. Said another way, almost everybody is within an eye-blink of donning a Yellow jersey in the overall contest.

o Here are some quick numbers to toss about freely (while giving attribution to yours truly, naturally): Eleven riders are within one second of Valverde, and 44 are within seven seconds, and all the way down to 100th place, occupied by sprinter Mark Cavendish, is a mere two minutes behind Valverde. In other words, it’s anyone’s race at this point. Anyone except Mauricio Soler (see below).

o As of Sunday’s stage, we had 179 of 180 riders still on the road, with one unlucky bloke out with broken wrist bones due to a foul-up at the feed zone.

o Colombian climbing sensation Mauricio Soler, who won last year’s King of The Mountains Jersey by something like a million points to zero for everybody else (combined), also went down on Saturday but remounted and finished in questionable shape. On Sunday he rode with his wrist taped up to alleviate a suspected Scaplula fracture, but clearly wasn’t running on all eight cylinders and got dropped from the pack in the middle of nowhere. He now sits in 179th place, more than 10 minutes down from our leader.

o Soler is 78% likely (by my calculations) to be sitting in a more comfortable group tomorrow, in the back of an Air France jet heading home. Sure, it’s possible (about 1 in 5 odds) he’ll suffer through the bore-war on Monday, rolling at the back of the peleton and hoping not to lose any more time, and then keep going day-to-day.

But you don’t need to trifle with this moonshot. Just tell people confidently that your sources, and they are very good sources, tell you that Mauricio is tossing in the towel in coming hours.

Then tell them you think this is actually a bigger deal than it sounds, and here’s why: http://www.bicycle.net/2008/if-soler-is-out-a-more-civilized-boring-tour-of-mountains.

Okay, let’s prep you for some further prognostication and/or wagering.

If asked who’s doing surprisingly well, in your view, you’re going to toss out the following names: Kim Kirchen, Riccardo Ricco, and Andy Schleck. They’re each obscenely young (i.e., they don’t have to shave their legs yet), talented, and sitting within a few slim seconds of #1 in the overall rankings.

Yes, the expected guys are up there too, like Cadel Evans, Oscar Friere, Frank Schleck, Oscar Periero, George Hincapie, Carlos Sastre, and the ruskie, Denis Menchov.

Let’s start with Cadel: If he wins the Tour this year, the official cheer will be a simultaneous, worldwide YAWN. His strategy is to always be #2 and hope #1 finds a way to lose. It’s not pathetic, it’s apathetic.

Then there’s Oscar Friere, who is Valverde’s teammate so those two will not go head to head. But Tuesday’s time trial will see who’s going to be whose bitch starting Wednesday, if you know what I mean.

Frank Schleck, you must know, recently gave an interview to a cycling rag and made the point repeatedly that he doesn’t like training. He likes walking in the woods. And quiet time. Your bookie’s line on him would be “dog don’t want to run.” Save your Euros wagering on him; his mind’s off in the forest, not where it should be, like visualizing killing 179 other guys to win the freakin’ Tour de France.

Then the true Iron Man, George Hincapie, is like the senior statesman more there to coach the youngsters on his team than to try to win the goll darn race, but he’s so talented he can’t help but be within stone’s throw of Valverde at this point. He’s okay as a time trialer, but count on him to slip in rankings after Tuesday. The world loves ya George.

Finally, Sastre. Oh, Carlos, what is there to say. He’s got the ability to float up the mountains with the best of them, and to time trial very respectably. But does he have the confidence in himself to win the Tour de France? Historically, not quite.

But of course, last year he got his legs torn off in the Rasmussen-Contador-Soler mixed-martial-arts bout in the Pyrenees. This year, looks like none of those guys are going to be tossing gasoline and matches on the peloton when the roads head toward the sun, so we’ll see if Sastre has the leg-strength to shake off Cadel as the Australian attempts to dry hump Sastre’s back wheel.

But then, things could go “a cropper,” as they say, if the young guns Kirchen, Ricco, and Schleck-the-younger decide to give it a go — AND LET’S HOPE THEY DO.

These guys are not hardened stage racers but they’ve surprised people lately, especially the performances of Ricco and Andy Schleck in the almost impossibly demanding climbs of the Tour of Italy. Be very watchful what happens if they notch a good mountain win and get a thirst for blood. If that happens, we may have the next Alberto Contador standing atop the podium for the world to gaze upon.

Okay, study this. Memorize it. Print it out and keep a copy in your jersey pocket for quick reference. You’re ready to offer insight, guide people to a good day with their bookie, and wax eloquently with the guys at the shop. Talk to you tomorrow.

p.s. If you have a question that didn’t get answered here, use the “Comment” function below to leave it, and our high-priced attorneys and sexy summer interns will assemble a quick response, for which I’ll receive the credit, naturally.

Overall standings after the 2nd stage of the Tour de France, a 164.5km ride from Auray to Saint-Brieuc on Sunday:

1. Alejandro Valverde (ESP/GCE) 8hr 21min 20sec
2. Kim Kirchen (LUX/COL) at 0:01.
3. Oscar Freire (ESP/RAB) 0:01.
4. Juan Jose Cobo (ESP/SDV) 0:01.
5. Cadel Evans (AUS/SIL) 0:01.
6. Jérôme Pineau (FRA/BTL) 0:01.
7. David Millar (GBR/GAR) 0:01.
8. Riccardo Ricco (ITA/SDV) 0:01.
9. Frank Schleck (LUX/CSC) 0:01.
10. Filippo Pozzato (ITA/LIQ) 0:01.
11. Oscar Pereiro (ESP/GCE) 0:01.
12. Philippe Gilbert (BEL/FDJ) 0:01.
13. Matteo Carrara (ITA/QST) 0:01.
14. Thor Hushovd (NOR/C.A) 0:07.
15. Erik Zabel (GER/MRM) 0:07.
16. Samuel Sanchez (ESP/EUS) 0:07.
17. Andy Schleck (LUX/CSC) 0:07.
18. Martin Elmiger (SUI/A2R) 0:07.
19. Mikel Astarloza (ESP/EUS) 0:07.
20. Yury Trofimov (RUS/BTL) 0:07.
21. Christian Vande Velde (USA/GAR) 0:07.
22. Tadej Valjavec (SLO/A2R) 0:07.
23. Christian Knees (GER/MRM) 0:07.
24. George Hincapie (USA/COL) 0:07.
25. Denis Menchov (RUS/RAB) 0:07.
26. Carlos Barredo (ESP/QST) 0:07.
27. Carlos Sastre (ESP/CSC) 0:07.
28. Manuel Beltran (ESP/LIQ) 0:07.
29. Stefan Schumacher (GER/GST) 0:07.
30. Alexandre Botcharov (RUS/C.A) 0:07.
31. Baden Cooke (AUS/BAR) 0:07.
32. Luis Leon Sanchez (ESP/GCE) 0:07.
33. Fabian Cancellara (SUI/CSC) 0:07.
34. Stijn Devolder (BEL/QST) 0:07.
35. Maxime Monfort (BEL/COF) 0:07.
36. Benoît Vaugrenard (FRA/FDJ) 0:07.
37. Roman Kreuziger (CZE/LIQ) 0:07.
38. Marzio Bruseghin (ITA/LAM) 0:07.
39. Jens Voigt (GER/CSC) 0:07.
40. Haimar Zubeldia (ESP/EUS) 0:07.
41. Trent Lowe (AUS/GAR) 0:07.
42. Ryder Hesjedal (CAN/GAR) 0:07.
43. Damiano Cunego (ITA/LAM) 0:07.
44. Egoi Martinez (ESP/EUS) 0:07.
45. Thomas Lövkvist (SWE/COL) 0:07.
46. Leonardo Duque (COL/COF) 0:18.
47. Vladimir Efimkin (RUS/A2R) 0:18.
48. Vincenzo Nibali (ITA/LIQ) 0:18.
49. Yaroslav Popovych (UKR/SIL) 0:18.
50. Sebastian Lang (GER/GST) 0:18.
51. Ivan Gutierrez (ESP/GCE) 0:18.
52. Fabian Wegmann (GER/GST) 0:18.
53. Gorka Verdugo (ESP/EUS) 0:18.
54. Simon Gerrans (AUS/C.A) 0:18.
55. Eduardo Gonzalo (ESP/AGR) 0:18.
56. Markus Fothen (GER/GST) 0:18.
57. Freddy Bichot (FRA/AGR) 0:18.
58. Romain Feillu (FRA/AGR) 0:18.
59. Bram Tankink (NED/RAB) 0:26.
60. Aurélien Passeron (FRA/SDV) 0:26.
61. Laurens ten Dam (NED/RAB) 0:31.
62. Moises Duenas (ESP/BAR) 0:31.
63. Sylvain Chavanel (FRA/COF) 0:31.
64. Marco Velo (ITA/MRM) 0:37.
65. Murilo Fischer (BRA/LIQ) 0:37.
66. William Bonnet (FRA/C.A) 0:37.
67. John-Lee Augustyn (RSA/BAR) 0:39.
68. Dmitriy Fofonov (KAZ/C.A) 0:39.
69. Cyril Dessel (FRA/A2R) 0:39.
70. Paolo Longo (ITA/BAR) 0:39.
71. Christophe Moreau (FRA/AGR) 0:39.
72. Nicki Sörensen (DEN/CSC) 0:39.
73. Juan Antonio Flecha (ESP/RAB) 0:39.
74. Amets Txurruka (ESP/EUS) 0:39.
75. Gerald Ciolek (GER/COL) 0:42.
76. Josep Jufre (ESP/SDV) 0:49.
77. Julian Dean (NZL/GAR) 0:52.
78. Robbie McEwen (AUS/SIL) 0:57.
79. Steven De Jongh (NED/QST) 0:57.
80. Robert Hunter (RSA/BAR) 0:59.
81. Martijn Maaskant (NED/GAR) 1:01.
82. Stuart O’Grady (AUS/CSC) 1:01.
83. Florent Brard (FRA/COF) 1:01.
84. Nicolas Jalabert (FRA/AGR) 1:01.
85. Manuel Quinziato (ITA/LIQ) 1:12.
86. Robert Förster (GER/GST) 1:12.
87. Geoffroy Lequatre (FRA/AGR) 1:12.
88. Christophe Brandt (BEL/SIL) 1:12.
89. Ruben Perez (ESP/EUS) 1:12.
90. Sébastian Langeveld (NED/RAB) 1:12.
91. Martin Müller (GER/MRM) 1:12.
92. Ralf Grabsch (GER/MRM) 1:12.
93. Matteo Tosatto (ITA/QST) 1:12.
94. Jimmy Casper (FRA/AGR) 1:37.
95. Kanstantsin Siutsou (BLR/COL) 1:47.
96. Mark Renshaw (AUS/C.A) 1:52.
97. Stéphane Goubert (FRA/A2R) 1:52.
98. Heinrich Haussler (GER/GST) 1:52.
99. Alessandro Ballan (ITA/LAM) 1:58.
100. Mark Cavendish (IDM/COL) 2:00.
101. Inaki Isasi (ESP/EUS) 2:00.
102. Dario Cioni (ITA/SIL) 2:00.
103. Frederik Willems (BEL/LIQ) 2:00.
104. David Le Lay (FRA/AGR) 2:00.
105. Jésus Del Nero (ESP/SDV) 2:00.
106. Juan Jose Oroz (ESP/EUS) 2:00.
107. Christophe Le Mevel (FRA/C.A) 2:00.
108. David Moncoutié (FRA/COF) 2:00.
109. Volodymir Gustov (UKR/CSC) 2:00.
110. Sandy Casar (FRA/FDJ) 2:00.
111. Amaël Moinard (FRA/COF) 2:00.
112. Jose Luis Arrieta (ESP/A2R) 2:00.
113. Thomas Voeckler (FRA/BTL) 2:00.
114. Brett Lancaster (AUS/MRM) 2:00.
115. Marcus Burghardt (GER/COL) 2:00.
116. Rémy Di Grégorio (FRA/FDJ) 2:00.
117. Mario Aerts (BEL/SIL) 2:00.
118. Angel Litu Gomez (ESP/SDV) 2:00.
119. Koos Moerenhout (NED/RAB) 2:00.
120. Nicolas Vogondy (FRA/AGR) 2:00.
121. Peter Velits (SVK/MRM) 2:00.
122. Will Frischkorn (USA/GAR) 2:00.
123. Adam Hansen (AUS/COL) 2:00.
124. Sébastien Chavanel (FRA/FDJ) 2:00.
125..
Lilian Jégou (FRA/FDJ) 2:00.
126. Joost Posthuma (NED/RAB) 2:00.
127. Bernhard Kohl (AUT/GST) 2:06.
128. Félix Cardenas (COL/BAR) 2:08.
129. Gert Steegmans (BEL/QST) 2:37.
130. Sébastien Rosseler (BEL/QST) 2:37.
131. Mauro Facci (ITA/QST) 2:48.
132. Niki Terpstra (NED/MRM) 3:09.
133. Matteo Bono (ITA/LAM) 3:11.
134. Sven Krauss (GER/GST) 3:11.
135. Daniele Righi (ITA/LAM) 3:22.
136. Jurgen Van de Walle (BEL/QST) 3:42.
137. Rémi Pauriol (FRA/C.A) 3:42.
138. Danny Pate (USA/GAR) 3:42.
139. Ronny Scholz (GER/GST) 3:59.
140. Massimiliano Mori (ITA/LAM) 4:10.
141. Johann Tschopp (SUI/BTL) 4:10.
142. Sylvester Szmyd (POL/LAM) 4:10.
143. Leif Hoste (BEL/SIL) 4:16.
144. Stef Clement (NED/BTL) 4:22.
145. John Gadret (FRA/A2R) 4:22.
146. David De la Fuente (ESP/SDV) 4:30.
147. Laurent Lefèvre (FRA/BTL) 4:30.
148. Leonardo Piepoli (ITA/SDV) 4:30.
149. Hubert Dupont (FRA/A2R) 4:30.
150. Mathieu Sprick (FRA/BTL) 4:30.
151. Pierrick Fédrigo (FRA/BTL) 4:30.
152. Johan Van Summeren (BEL/SIL) 4:30.
153. Bernhard Eisel (AUT/COL) 4:30.
154. Yoann Le Boulanger (FRA/FDJ) 4:30.
155. Marco Marzano (ITA/LAM) 4:30.
156. Vicente Garcia Acosta (ESP/GCE) 4:30.
157. Kurt Asle Arvesen (NOR/CSC) 4:30.
158. Samuel Dumoulin (FRA/COF) 4:30.
159. Jérémy Roy (FRA/FDJ) 4:30.
160. Xavier Florencio (ESP/BTL) 4:30.
161. Nicolas Portal (FRA/GCE) 4:30.
162. Arnaud Gérard (FRA/FDJ) 4:34.
163. Pieter Weening (NED/RAB) 4:36.
164. Paolo Tiralongo (ITA/LAM) 4:36.
165. Jimmy Engoulvent (FRA/C.A) 5:17.
166. Björn Schroeder (GER/MRM) 5:27.
167. Francesco Chicchi (ITA/LIQ) 5:51.
168. Christophe Riblon (FRA/A2R) 5:51.
169. Arnaud Coyot (FRA/GCE) 5:53.
170. Chris Froome (GBR/BAR) 6:34.
171. Giampaolo Cheula (ITA/BAR) 6:34.
172. David Lopez (ESP/GCE) 6:52.
173. David Arroyo (ESP/GCE) 6:52.
174. Magnus Backstedt (SWE/GAR) 7:06.
175. Aliaksandr Kuschynski (BLR/LIQ) 7:26.
176. Stéphane Augé (FRA/COF) 7:26.
177. Rubens Bertogliati (SUI/SDV) 8:07.
178. Wim Vansevenant (BEL/SIL) 9:01.
179. Mauricio Soler (COL/BAR) 10:22.