The Armstrong Debate – Can He Win The 2009 Tour de France
No position by: Spencer Canon
Bicycling Magazine arrived in my mailbox yesterday. The cover article is “Lance Rides Again. Why He Can Win.” I found myself immediately annoyed. First off, I don’t know how I miraculously got a subscription to Bicycling. It just shows up every month like a perky Hollywood celebrity telling me I can “Lose 5 Pounds Now!” and offering riveting insight into “Why Pete Yorn Loves his Singlespeed.” So when Bicycling talks about racing, I can’t help but hear Oprah’s voice. And of course Oprah thinks Lance will win the Tour. Because in her world, and in the world of the I own a Postal Service replica team bike and matching XXL jersey and therefore know everything I need to know about racing crowd, Lance is THE ONLY guy racing. And that, at heart, is my big problem with the Lance Armstrong bandwagon. The casual cyclist who reads Bike Mag doesn’t know who gets 2nd or 3rd at the Tour and doesn’t care. So just imagine their shock next month when Lance gets summarily trounced.
Don’t get me wrong. I think Armstrong is awesome. He’s one of the best athletes in human history and I truly believe he wants to leave this world for the better. Does he have the physical potential of winning a Tour again? Probably. Will it happen this year? No.
If his stars had aligned, maybe he’d have a chance. But the collarbone setback isn’t the only hurdle. There’s still the issue of Contador. The tension between them is so thick it makes me uncomfortable in my living room. First they were going to be joint captains. Then Contador announced that Lance was going to work for him and be “just another teammate.” Then Contador points to Lance and Levi as two of his biggest rivals. Then Lance says he still has hopes for the Tour. And most recently Astana releases a video that is entirely unclear as to who is the outright leader. It’s shaping up to be nothing like the Hinault/Lemond showdown. And by “nothing” like it I mean exactly like it. Well except for the fact that Hinault and Lemond were at least more evenly matched.
I think everybody needs reminding that Lance won all those Tours not only because of his physical superiority, but also on account of his unbelievably unified team. Postal Service’s and Discovery’s ONLY goal was to deliver Lance to the podium. In contrast, Astana is so disheveled I doubt they can even deliver Contador, the true dominant rider in the peloton, to a Tour victory right now.
So when Lance is barely flirting with the top ten in July, try this novel exercise: watch some of the other riders who do have a chance. Heck, take a step out into those unfamiliar waters and actually root for one of them. Like Carlos Sastre, who is the nicest guy and one of the most amazing climbers of our generation. Or Andy Schleck, who’s youthful joy and classiness is utterly refreshing. Or even Cadel Evans, who proved in the Dauphine that he’s willing to attack and attack and attack, even on the last flat stage. Of course there’s Menchov, the toughest s.o.b on two wheels.
Sorry Bicycling Magazine. He’s not going to win this year. Luckily your readers will probably lose interest in the first week and not notice anyway. But hey, keep up the good work. I love your handy tips on achieving sexy abs and a tight butt.
Yes position by: VeloGuy
When the discussion of Lance Armstrong and his chance of winning yet another Tour de France comes up, you will get as many opinions as you have people in the room. It seems everyone thinks that they have the answer, and I am no exception.
So you now are asking me what makes me such an expert. Well, for the simple reason that I think that I am, and in my world that is all that matters.
Okay, so here is my list of the reasons why I think that Lance Armstrong can win the 2009 Tour de France;
• All things being equal, Armstrong has one of the strongest engines to ever hop their legs over a two wheeled bicycle. We can all agree that his 3 year retirement has not helped him keep his engine at 100%, and we can also agree that the added 3 years of age (now 37) also does not help. But…..if you start out with the biggest, baddest, strongest engine out there, that even with a little loss of power you are still going to be a force to be reckoned with. Look at Jeannie Longo, she is 40 years old and still at the front of the peloton. She proves that age today is less of a factor.
• Mental strength; Mental strength is at least 50% of the equation. Just listen to Levi Leipheimer. He credits a lot of his success this year to the “The Ultimate Cyclist” hypnotherapy CD. With a strong mind you can overcome just about any obstacle. Armstrong proved over his record setting 7 Tour de France wins that he has a mind that cannot be cracked, even though his body will for usually one day over a 3 week grand tour.
• His will to win; If Armstrong wants to win he will. Period. No questions asked. He has proven that his will to win is bar none a huge motivating factor for him.
• Team Astana; Put all the infighting and politics aside. If Armstrong is leading after the 1st week then Contador will be working for him, as will the entire team. Armstrong is no question the team’s emotional favorite, and very likely the team owner next year. The other riders on Astana know where their pay checks will come from next year.
• Competitors; This year you have so many potential guys that can challenge for the yellow jersey that it might be a little easier for Armstrong to get away. It is going to be hard to keep an eye on Sastre, Menchov, Schleck, Evans, Contador, Armstrong, Fedrigo, Rogers, and the list can go on.
• Last but not least; Lance Armstrong is the emotional favorite. Whether you love him, you hate him, you think he rides clean, or doesn’t, his story is one that almost everyone likes to talk about. Rooting for him, or rooting against him, you are rooting about him.
Lance keeps telling us he did not come back to win. He keeps saying that is comeback is all about cancer, and it mostly is. But Lance Armstrong will show up at the 2009 Tour de France to win. He will show up mean and lean and ready to race. He will take his Giro training and use it to crush the peloton.
Lance is back baby!
Categories: Features, Hub, Lance Armstrong
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This One’s For The Dopers
“His will to win; If Armstrong wants to win he will. Period. No questions asked. He has proven that his will to win is bar none a huge motivating factor for him…”
Counterpoint:
Lance wanted to win the opening Prologue. He wasn’t saving anything for days ahead. He wanted to stamp his leadership and get Contador out there breaking wind for him for the next three weeks.
Lots of want, and a good ride, solid ride, but 10th overall and 4th on his Astana team alone.
Watching LA interviews since then, he seems even more challenged to swallow the fact that he’s now a support rider. He seems even to be separating out his views from Bruyneel’s, and those two historically spoke from the same PR book at all times.
Watching the Astana squad in Stage 2, it was noticable at times that LA positioned himself in the middle of the squad — as if he were the protected one (still), while Contador sat a bike or two back with some other team’s rider in front of him. Seems like strange karma within Astana.
The good news is that we could actually see a LA/Contador fight go on for some days ahead. Not that it’s healthy for the team, but it certainly makes for good TV.
Me, I’ve been to watch LA race in Georgia and in France, and I’ve rode with Contador in the US, and I think they’re both spectacular. But if it’s a matter of who’s got the best stuff for the Tour, just check the wagering websites for the odds and you’ll note that people who couldn’t care less about either of these guys think Alberto brings the goods.