WILL A TEPID STAGE RACE ACROSS PAN-FLAT AUSTRALIA BE THE MOST IMPORTANT PRO EVENT OF 2009?

Next week we will all find out how dominant the Astana/Lance combo can be, and we think The Man protest-eth too much, as they say.

Lance says he’s “in shape” and “ahead of previous Januaries” in terms of fitness and weight.  But then he’s careful to add that he’s “nervous” about how quickly he can comfortably get back to jostling for his place amid a pack of 200 racers flying along at high speeds.

Yeah, right.  

It reminds one of Arizona Cardinal’s multiple Superbowl-winning quarterback, Mark Warner, who got tossed unceremoniously from the St. Louis Rams, then knocked about from team to team and seemingly disappeared forever from the ranks of starting NFL quarterbacks — until someone in Phoenix handed him the ball.  Almost immediately, he’s taken the new team to the threshold of its first Superbowl in forever. 

Does Warner get butterflies before the start of each game — undoubtedly.  But is it a wonder that such a remarkably talented athlete – who’s not exactly a kid himself – took about two snaps of the ball to get back to his winning ways?  Answer:  Hardly.  After all, it’s all he knows how to do.  Winners know how to win.  And when they show up with their heads and bodies in the right form, it’s unwise to bet against them.

So back to hisownself, Mr. Armstrong.  The man professes a certain amount of uncertainty about how readily he’ll adapt to riding in the crowded pack.  

First, let’s keep in mind that he’s absolutely dominated that same pack for the past decade, notwithstanding his brief sabbatical.  He’s literally the Tutto di Capi of the peloton.  Don Corlioni.  The-World-Is-Mine Scarface.  The Pope.  General MacArthur.  Pick your metahpor, he’s the man.  And which meager rider is going to be so presumptuous as to pull his bike in front of Lance at the start line, and demand the seven-time Tour champ re-earn his post position?  

Second, let’s remember that, unlike you and me, Lance doesn’t start at the back of the pack any more than Tiger Woods goes back to Q-school to win entry to the PGA tour.  He starts with his front wheel on the line, Astana teammates to the left, right and rear of him, and about 192 others tucked obediently behind them.  In other words, Lance won’t be riding in a pack of 200 racers.  He’ll be riding among the front 10 riders in the peloton, and a good number of those cloistered around him will be decked out in kits matching his own; his own private security escort.

Consider next, that if Lance wants to get back on the world stage, he knows it’s important to make a splash.  Coming in, say, 20th place in a rather placid (flacid?) week-long stage race, would be something quite less than that.  Here’s the poorly-kept secret:  Lance knows P.R. and the media better than he knows how to ride a bicycle.  He knows it is about setting expectations, and then smashing them.  You don’t get headlines for simply meeting expectations.  So he talks down the expectations to the degree credible, then works harder than anyone else in the business to ensure success.

And let’s not forget that it simply isn’t in Lance’s DNA to race for fifth, or top-ten, or anything less than top of the podium.  Which racer at next week’s TDU do you think Lance would willing concede the top step of the podium to?  Which person will he grant is simply a greater racer than himself?  To what extent will he accept that the TDU was simply too big a mountain to climb for his powerful Astana squad, and for himself?

Correct, these are entirely rhetorical questions.

INSTEAD, one should ask how Lance and Johan will have decided to have changed the race to ensure Astana’s dominance, and to place Lance atop the podium when the dust settles.  This behavior is simply the result of the shared DNA between the sport’s greatest coach and its greatest rider.  They don’t plan to show up and compete.  They don’t plan to celebrate the odd stage win.  They don’t repay their sponsors with a few odd mentions by slipping riders into improbable breakaways to capture TV time.  They play to win, and they expect to win, and it would be complete farce to imagine that Johan and Lance simply couldn’t get their heads around how one could bring the best riders in the world to this provincial race and win it.

HISTORICALLY, the TDU has largely been left to the sprinters to chase stage wins, and, with all due respect, one rarely saw top European teams sending their best talent there.  And when they did, it was often for the express purpose of gaining some warm-weather conditioning before the start of the European tour calendar.  

Has Lance said he’s going down there to “get in shape,” or to sharpen up for the Tour of California?  Once again, we wax rhetorically.  Has he said he’ll be targeting a good workout, and hopes to finish in the top 20, but won’t be going for the win because he’s saving bullets for future races?  Answer:  There’s nothing immediately following the TDU on his race calendar to “hold back for.  So we bring you:

TDU, as presented by ASTANA

The surest bet in this business, is that Johan and Lance have already sized up each and every participant and team competing in the TDU, and have carefully studied each stage layout, and from all that they’ll have set out a strategy for Astana to positively dictate the tempo and tactics of the race.  No detail has gone un-noticed, no resource has been spared.    

Astana will, of course, ride at all times near the front of the Peloton, setting pace and spying any bib number that dares take a flyer off the front.  

TDU being a flattish course, the pace will be f-a-s-t as always, but maybe not as fast as in the past.  See, when the race is stuffed full of very good riders – but without any singular dominant team or rider – everybody starts each stage thinking “maybe this can be my day.”  Every man rolls out of the neutral zone itching for a chance at a breakaway.  Every team with a sprinter worth his two cents dutifully chases down these breakaways to give their sprinter a chance at a stage jersey.  Nothing is saved for the overall win.  Allegiances, if any, are thin and quickly forgotten, as it’s every-man-for-himself.  So on a long, flat week of stages, the group can find itself flying along as a result of all this undisciplined guerilla warfare. 

Enter Che Guevara, the guerilla of all guerillas.  

Now that winter is upon us, you might have had a chance to dust off those ’99-’05 Tour videos for all that lovely indoor training many of us are left to when temperatures plummet to levels where fahrenheit and celsius substantially eclipse.  If you’ve been dutiful about all that spinning, you’ll have noticed that year after year, as Sir Lance became more engrained as the presumptive winner before the first mile had been ridden, and everybody else set their sights on racing for second — a certain discipline fell over the Tour.  

Each year, Lance and Johan brought a new, enhanced and stronger squad of riders, and the other teams increasingly set their tactics and strategy around what was left to them by Postal/Discovery.  More and more, the primary tactic for the other squads evolved to minimizing losses against Lance, so as to preserve the chances for their best rider to gain footing somewhere on the GC podium.  

We believe there are approximately 199 riders who will set out across the great outback with that lesson firmly in mind.  

We believe, notwithstanding Lance’s hemming and hawing, that Astana will quickly bring a sense of pre-ordained order to the event, because Astana will be out to do nothing less than demonstrate a convincing show-of-force that puts the rest of the pro circuit on notice that they are back to racing for second place this year. 

We believe Astana will dispassionately concede stage wins in the TDU, but will not allow serious challenges to the General Classification unless Lance proves unable to keep the pace.  And that won’t happen.  

We believe that Astana will happily put its men out front and pull Lance along at a strong pace that discourages breakaways, though it will happy see off riders who have no chance at a GC win.  

We believe that Astana will seek to give up no time to other teams/riders who pose a threat to stand above Lance next weekend, when the TDU is finished.  

We believe that it would be patently foolish to bet against Johan and Lance to figure out how to win this race.